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Published on May 11th, 2012 | by Luis Cavalcanti

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Real State by State Delegate Count and the Truth about Ron Paul’s Delegates

Ok, so we’re way way ahead of this. If you’re a normal person who pays attention to about as much news as a normal person might pay attention to, this will come as a total shock to you. You’ve probably been wondering why in the heck Ron Paul has continued to run instead of dropping out and doing the usual endorsement of what everyone is now calling the “presumptive nominee”. Well, the reason is because most states haven’t actually knighted the delegates they are planning on sending on to Tampa.

Now it’s a convoluted process, but as I understand it (and I don’t), the way this works is that most states have some sort of preliminary vote. In some cases, this takes the form of a primary, in other cases it is a caucus. In either case, most states then get people together either by county or at some big ol’ state convention operated under Robert’s Rules of Order and then select who will go to the party’s national convention. So far, most states have only held that initial vote. What that means is, most states haven’t actually decided who will represent them in Tampa when the candidate is actually decided.

Mitt Romney CaricatureWhy is it important? Well, it’s important because since the delegates are picked after the primaries and caucuses, there is a chance that the vote taken in the primary or at the caucus will have no bearing on who is actually sent to the convention itself. In Iowa, for example, Mitt Romney won 24.5% of the vote, Rick Santorum won 24.6% of the vote, Ron Paul won 21.4% of the vote, Newt Gingrich who stole Christmas came in at 13.3% of the vote, Rick Perry got 10.3% of the vote, Michele Bachmann got 5% of the vote, Huntsman snagged .6% of the vote, and the rest of te .3% was divided among Mickey Mouse, Goofy and probably some candidates who thought they actually mattered at all (poor Gary Johnson). Despite those numbers, and Ron Paul coming in a solid 3rd place, with 16 of the 28 delegates apportioned already (the remaining 12 to be given out at the party’s June 15 state convention), more than half of those available have apparently gone to Dr. Paul. Since delegates have a mind of their own and can basically do whatever they want when comes Tampa, there is no absolute number, but a lot of writers believe that Ron Paul has at least 13 delegates in Iowa. When the party’s convention occurs, we’ll see if he picks up more. There is a chance that Ron Paul will basically have every single Iowa delegate.

Confused?

Wondering how a man who gets less than 22% of the vote could possibly get 100% of the delegates? Well, most people didn’t know it was possible. But the party’s convoluted rules allow it to happen which makes some of us pretty happy this year .

Anyhow, like I said, there are no definite numbers when it comes to these delegates I’ve done my best to compile what I consider to be a credible list of the delegate numbers below. As this all gets underway, I will also try to link to credible sources so you can actually believe what I am writing. Because, if this is actually a reflection of the party’s machanations, well… to borrow from the Bible, “This is a hard teaching. Who can accept it?” Maybe you’ll put a bit more credence in what I say if it’s not me, but, rather, the Des Moines Register that confirms it. That said, let us begin.

I have done my best to compile this list, so forgive me if a few things are wrong here and there. I think it’s as accurate as anything there is out there since so much of it is conjecture anyhow. I did my best, and I’ll be adding more sources as we go. If you find any mistakes, comment below, or if there are developments, put them in the comments with a source. I will update the table as that occurs.

It is reasonable to believe that Mitt Romney has a definite majority in this state.

It is reasonable to believe that Ron Paul has a definite majority in this state.

It is reasonable to believe that the candidate designated with the majority of delegates is not necessarily the majority.

Anyhow, only 625 delegates have actually been definitively given out. That said, the hard total based on bound delegates (which some Ron Paul supporters are saying doesn’t matter) Romney has something more like 811 delegates. Here’s the thing, a lot of Ron Paul supporters have been making hey about Rule 38. The Rule states “No delegate or alternate delegate shall be bound by any attempt of any state or Congressional district to impose the unit rule.”

What’s the Unit Rule? Good question! Well, I didn’t know, so I looked it up. According the Dictionary.com it is “a rule whereby a state’s delegation votes as a unit, not recognizing minority votes within the delegation.” According to Paulites, Rule 38 allows Romney’s so-called bound delegates to vote however they want in the first round of voting. I tried my best to read it like that, but I find it hard to read rule 38 in that way. It seems to me that if you are bound, you’re bound by contract to your state to vote for the candidate you went to the convention to represent. That said, it is traditional in the convention to only be bound in the first round of voting. If a candidate fails to achieve the 1144 candidates necessary to win this years floor vote, delegates are essentially unbound. That said, a lot of Paulites who are bound Romney delegates are discussing just abstaining from voting during the first round. I couldn’t find anything on abstaining in the rules. So, doing that might set off quite a raucous. Anyhow, the rules for the party convention are below, so go ahead and take a look at them for yourself. Come to your own conclusions.

When looked at objectively, it’s hard to understand how Ron Paul could make much of a dent in the nomination of Mitt Romney. But who knows? To date, he’s proved more resilient than anyone would have given him credit for being. He has continually said that he doesn’t want to cause problems at the convention, but it may end up being an inevitability. If he ends up racking up enough delegates, the convention might be way more interesting than anyone would ever have guessed.

UPDATE: Ben Swann brings up exactly my concern regarding the Unit Rule – the fact that it doesn’t apply to states binding individuals – and then explains why how the RNC itself may have hoisted themselves upon their own petard in the case of interpreting this part of their rulebook. Apparently, while the Unit rule doesn’t appear to apply to individuals as it is stated, the RNC’s legal council actually ruled differently. In the last election, the RNC’s own legal council proffered this opinion about their party’s own rule: “[The] RNC does not recognize a state’s binding of national delegates, but considers each delegate a free agent who can vote for whoever they choose.” What’s more is that this opinion was given when one McCain delegate preferred instead to vote for Mitt Romney. Whoops…

UPDATE MAY 20, 2012: RON PAUL WAS GIVEN 12 OF THE 13 DELEGATES AT THE MN CONVENTION. ONE WENT TO BACHMANN AFTER THE PAUL DELEGATE CONCEDED OUT OF RESPECT.

UPDATE MAY 16, 2012: ARIZONA’S NUMBERS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. AFTER THREE DAYS OF HOLDING THEIR DELEGATE BALLOTS, IT HAS COME OUT THAT MITT ROMNEY WON 26 OF THE 29 SPOTS AVAILABLE. PAUL’S SUPPORTERS ARE ALLEGING IMPROPRIETY AS THEY HAD CONFIRMED DURING THE CONVENTION PAUL’S SUPPORTERS HAD CONFIRMED SOMETHING LIKE 11 OF THE 18 DELEGATES APPORTIONED TO THAT POINT. NOW, WHETHER THAT CLAIM IS TRUE IS UNSUBSTANTIATED. BUT IF IT IS AND IF THERE IS PROOF, THEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AZ’S RESULTS COULD BE SUCCESFULLY CHALLENGED. ADDITIONALLY, OKLAHOMA’S CONVENTION WAS VERY OBVIOUSLY ENDED IN A WAY THAT IS AGAINST THE STATE PARTY’S RULES. PAUL’S SUPPORTERS RECONVENED IN THE PARKING LOT AND NOW THERE ARE TWO SLATES THAT CLAIM LEGITIMACY.

About the Author

Luis Cavalcanti

Luis Cavalcanti

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